Tornadoes in Pensacola!

We have had very heavy rain since early this morning. Pensacola was hit by tornadoes about mid-morning and they caused extensive damage. There were some injuries but no deaths have been reported. You can read all about it in this story at the Pensacola News Journal website. I'm home from work now because my workplace shut down and let everybody go home early. The tornadoes hit several miles away from the neighborhood where I live and work. While we are going to continue to get some rain for a while, hopefully there will be no more tornadoes in the area.

Update (10/19/07): PNJ: Picking up the pieces

I really hope I'm wrong...

...but the computer models of Hurricane Dean's path are looking very Ivan-esque. They keep shifting eastward each day.

I am so glad I got those hurricane shutters!

Ernesto

The current five day track and computer models look way too familiar. No, I don't like the looks of it at all...

Update (8/27/06): Well, it looks like it's tracking well to the east of us, now. However, I'm still going to keep an eye on it.

Zeta!

Unbelievable! It's far out in the Atlantic and will probably stay there, but still, it's downright freaky that a tropical storm would form right as 2005 is coming to a close. Weather blogger Jeff Masters will be posting more on this later.

Dear Hurricane Season 2005

Come now, don't you think this is a little excessive? I mean, we are in the middle of November here. Please, give it up, won't you?

P.S. (11/18/05): Oh, for heaven's sake...you've got to be kidding!

P.P.S. (11/22/05): Enough already!

P.P.P.S (11/29/05): T.S. Epsilon...and hurricane season ends tomorrow... **shaking head**

Wilmaaaa!

Okay, I know everybody has made that joke by now...so sue me. For now, I'm not worried about Hurricane Wilma because, according to the computer models, a front is supposed to cause her to turn eastward after she crawls over the Yucatan Peninsula. While this is a good thing for my area, it's a bad thing for South Florida. Hopefully, she will weaken considerably before she hits Florida.

Now that the hurricane names have all been used up, any other storms this season are going be assigned Greek alphabet names: Alpha, Beta, etc. Considering how early the season got started and how active it's been, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few Greek names used before November 30, which is when hurricane season ends.

I'll be getting my storm shutters installed early next year (yes, there is a waiting list), so I just hope we don't get anything major in this area before the season ends.

Evacuation and Hysteria

Okay, I've been thinking this, but Dean Esmay said it. I've been wondering how necessary it is to evacuate Houston. Galveston I can understand because it's built on a barrier island. The whole purpose of a barrier island is to take the brunt of a hurricane for the mainland.

But Houston is pretty well inland. And it's a huge city with a lot of people sitting practically still in traffic while Rita clips along at about 11 MPH or so. And they may be still sitting there when the storm hits. This almost happened here in Pensacola with Hurricane Opal ten years ago. It strengthened overnight to, I think, a very strong Category 4 storm. People went into hysterics (thanks to radio DJs and such screeching, "This is the big one!") and with the storm very close they attempted to flee and clogged the roads. Fortunately, the storm weakened before making landfall and went slightly to the east of Pensacola. But if that had not happened, there would have been a lot of people stranded on the road with a Category 4 hurricane bearing down on them.

Here is my opinion on evacuation. Unless you live below sea level (like in New Orleans), live near enough to the water that storm surge and flooding is a threat, live in a trailer or unsound house or have medical issues that make loss of power or water life threatening, you should probably stay put. This is why I stay put...because none of the above applies to me. If a Category 5 storm were to ever threaten the area, I would certainly consider evacuating. But the thing is, these storms usually don't maintain that strength for very long and can weaken considerably before landfall (like Opal did then and Rita is doing now). But then you have hurricanes like Camille, Katrina and Andrew, which did not weaken. It's a tough call, but if you decide to evacuate, you can't decide at the last minute because then it's too late. You have to make that decision days ahead of time.

Update: I thought it fitting that I should highlight the post that Dean linked to on BeldarBlog. Perhaps I've done a poor job expressing my point here. Perhaps my use of the word "hysteria" was unnecessarily offensive. So here are some excerpts from Beldar's post explaining why he stayed rather than getting stuck in gridlocked traffic:

IMHO, local media have done a very bad job of distinguishing between "mandatory evacuation" areas (truly coastal counties, storm-surge areas) and elsewhere. Some of the adjacent coastal county officials are already bitching (publicly and unproductively) at Houston/Harris County officials for "ignoring the plan," which was to get the coastal zones evac'd first. Since so many Houstonians are also on the road ("early," in the view of those adjacent county folks), congestion is much worse for everyone. But I think the "fault" for that, if fault there be, can be laid more at the feet of the breathless media rather than Houston/Harris County officials. And ordinary folks are hyper-receptive to the hype because of Katrina.

If folks have actually LISTENED to what Mayor Bill White has been saying on TV, he's only been twisting arms for the mandatory evac zone folks to leave, plus those otherwise at high risk (e.g., hospital/nursing homes, those in mobile homes, those in houses repeatedly flooded by bayous in past storms). But I'm inferring that Mayor White — a friend of mine from law school, who'd probably like to be Sen. or Gov. White someday if a Democrat can ever get elected again in a state-wide Texas race — doesn't want to DISCOURAGE rank-and-file Houstonians from evacuating either. So neither he nor the Harris County officials have been explicitly calling for high-ground Houstonians to sit tight for now. And thus, when amplified by the media megaphones and imprecision in the media's reporting, Mayor White saying anything at all about evacuation by anyone comes across to most people like "RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!" [...]

There's essentially nothing on the local media to remind folks that, for example, Houston isn't dependent on vulnerable levies, below sea level, and in between a huge lake and the Mississippi. The man-on-the-street interviews with those planning to stay are always spun to make them look crazy.[...]

I've seen three major hurricanes since I moved to Houston, plus a buncha lesser but still impressive tropical storms, and I *DO* respect Mother Nature. But I'd rather be emailing you from my living room right now than out-of-gas on a gridlocked interstate, and I think I have a rational basis for concluding that I'm also safer here.

I apologize if the tone of this post has offended those who evacuated. I'm just expressing my opinion here based on my own experiences.

Not-So-Lovely Rita, Hurricane

Well, she's not quite a hurricane yet at this writing, but she will be soon enough. Another one coming into the Gulf, another one to keep an eye on. Right now, they have it tracking towards Texas...perhaps the Houston area. But it still has quite a way to go. I just wish that track and these models would quit inching eastward. I hate to see it hit anyone, but Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida need a break. Lord have mercy, please?

Katrina's Devastation

On TV and on various blogs, I've been reading about and watching footage of the devastation in Mississippi, particularly in the Gulfport/Biloxi areas. I heard on TV that there were bodies everywhere and the dead may be in the hundreds. The casinos were completely wrecked, which of course is a major source of employment in that area.

Although the worst fears about New Orleans didn't come to pass, there are other places in Louisiana that have been devastated.

There is much suffering in the areas hit by Katrina and they need help. The Command Post has a whole list of links to agencies that are helping the victims of this disaster.

Update: Bene Diction posts about the frustration expressed by Metroblogging New Orleans about how the major networks don't understand the gravity of the situation. As is pointed out, this may be the worst natural disaster in U.S. history.

Update 2: The waters are rising in New Orleans and the Governor of Louisiana is telling everyone to get out:

A full day after the city thought it had escaped Katrina's full fury, two levees broke and spilled water into the streets of New Orleans on Tuesday, swamping an estimated 80 percent of the bowl-shaped, below-sea-level city, inundating miles and miles of homes and rendering much of New Orleans uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Katrina Aftermath

Although New Orleans was hit very hard, it was spared the total devastation that many were predicting. This is probably because the storm weakened some and turned a little more eastward before making landfall. Mississippi and Mobile, Alabama were hit hard. Looking at pictures of Mobile on TV reminds me of what Ivan did to Pensacola.

Katrina flooded many low-lying areas here in Pensacola, and there are power outages. I got my power back and my sister got hers back. However, my boss called me and told me that the power is off at work and that if they don't get it back on before tomorrow, I don't have to go to work. I'm supposed to call the switchboard and check tomorrow.

I'll need to take the morning off tomorrow anyway so that the painter can do an estimate at my house. Also, I have to get to the drug store and get the rest of the Valtrex that they owe my Mom (they didn't have enough on hand to fully fill her prescription). She just took her last one and she needs it to keep the shingles from getting out of control.

So everything is getting back to normal...busy as usual...

Hurricane Katrina

I wanted to post earlier, but the cable was out for several hours this afternoon. It's overcast and a bit windy. It rained for a short time earlier. Other than that, the weather hasn't been that bad yet. From what I understand, we will get tropical storm force winds here in Pensacola and that the worst of it will be later tonight and tomorrow.

This storm is a Category 5 and it is heading straight for New Orleans. I'm afraid that this will be catastrophic for that city. The situation is very grim. Here is another post at Wizbang that drives home the gravity of the situation. Please pray for the people of New Orleans and neighboring Mississippi as well.

Here is a satellite picture of Katrina. Click for larger view. I heard that the eye is 30 miles across.

It's hard to believe how ugly and callous some people are. I remember when this sick missive* was posted last year not long before Ivan hit my area. And people like this guy are supposed to be the enlightened, sophisticated ones.

*Oh, and Mr. Wolcott, as someone who survived Hurricane Ivan last year, (and as someone who knows two people who lost their homes because of Ivan) let me assure you that there is nothing phony about my indignation. Also, let me share some twinkling thoughts with you. Many trees gave up their lives so that my fence that was destroyed could be rebuilt. And I had to have a new roof put on my house, and I'm sure all kinds of wicked things were done to poor Gaia to accomplish that. May those thoughts warm that shriveled thing you call a heart, you insufferable snot!

Update (8/29/05 - 7:05am): We have been having quite a few gusts of wind and some rain as well. The power has flashed a few times. They say we'll get the worst weather when the eye passes over Mississippi.

Update (7:45am): Simply ridiculous...a left-wing pesthole blog, which I will refer to as "the Daily Kooks" and will not directly link, is actually trying to make this hurricane into a partisan issue. They accuse the National Guard of not being in New Orleans and they blame the eee-vil Bushitler for it. However, the National Guard is there, in the Superdome and elsewhere. Oopsie...nice try, Kooks. Let me add that the National Guard were a tremendous help here in Pensacola after Ivan. I don't know what we would have done had they not been here. From what I understand, many of these guys had just returned from Iraq, and yet here they were, helping us.

Update (8:15am): I still have power and I'm still listening to the wind, which is picking up quite a bit now. My sister lost power at her house. If you want to understand the effects this hurricane is going to have on the already high gas prices, read this excellent essay at Hog on Ice.

Update (8:55am): Lost power...will try to check in later when I can!

Update (2:25pm): I'm back! The power is (hopefully) back on for good. It came back on briefly a little after noon, but went off again within a few minutes. We are still getting some gusts here, but things seem to be starting to taper off. I don't have any damage. Just a few small tree limbs fell.

Keeping an eye on Katrina...

It looks like she's going to go into the Gulf and swing north after going over South Florida. Right now, they have her tracking well to the east of Pensacola. However, things could change in the next few days. Also, the water in the Gulf is hot, so she will certainly get stronger.

It seems like every time I have plans and things I need to take care of, a hurricane or tropical storm disrupts everything. On Monday, I'm supposed to have someone come out to my house and do an estimate on painting some rooms. Also, I'm afraid my Mom, who had shingles for several months last year, may be having a relapse. If she's any worse tomorrow, she's going to the doctor even if I have to drag her there. If she needs medication, we need to get it before the storm hits, if it comes here.

Update (8/26/05): Now they've inched Katrina's track closer to us.

Update (8/26/05 - 11:00pm): The latest tracking and computer models show it going towards the Louisiana/Mississippi border area. It will probably make landfall as a Category 4. Even if we don't get a direct hit, things will get pretty nasty here if we are on the eastern side of the storm.

I'm back!

I'm back online again! My power came back on about an hour after my last update on the previous post (about 6:00pm). However, my cable had gone out and I just got it back a few minutes ago. Like I said in my post below, my house has no damage and we are all fine. The power was only out for three hours. We only had a few small branches that fell in our yard. I didn't go back to work today, but I figure we should go back in the next day or two.

They keep saying that Pensacola "dodged a bullet" and that is absolutely true. This could have been much worse. But the storm weakened some (although it was still a category 3) and went to the east of us, which really spared us the worse. It also went through very quickly, which also helped tremendously. However, the counties to the east of us were hit pretty hard, so I'm sure they are in much worse shape than we are here.

I really appreciate everyone's prayers...they really worked and God was very merciful. I thank God for sparing us the worst.

Hurricane Dennis (Here We Go Again!)

So Dennis is on his way and he will be either a very strong category 3 or a category 4 when he makes landfall. (Ivan was a category 4 until just before landfall -- the winds dropped about 5 miles/hour, making it a very strong 3.) The computer models show a landfall somewhere between the Mississippi/Alabama border and Pensacola, FL (which is where I'm at). I've done all the preparing I can do, so now we just have to wait. Right now, we are getting some heavy rain from one of the feeder bands.

I will try to check in with updates to this post periodically. This thing is supposed to hit tomorrow afternoon. (At least it will be during daylight and not during the night like Ivan.) Once the power goes out, I can't promise that I'll be able to check in. I have my iBook, and if the cable stays up, I will try to check in. (I will be able to get a limited amount of power to the modem with my UPS.) But don't be surprised if you don't hear from me for a while.

Anyway, say a little prayer for those of us here on the Gulf Coast as we face yet another major hurricane in less than a year.

Here is a satellite picture of Dennis:

(Click for larger view.)

Update (7/10 - 1:00am): I'm about to hit the hay and I just wanted to check in here. There's not much going on right now except for some light rain. Also, as an off-topic aside, I have some (mostly) new songs in the radio blog on the sidebar (under "Site Extras"). A couple of the songs are ones I uploaded a few months ago. I uploaded a few more songs a couple of weeks ago and I uploaded three more tonight. One of the songs is appropriate for the subject of this post. ;-)

Update (8:30am): The storm is now a category 4. It's been raining here all morning with a few gusts of wind. It's not too bad yet. I noticed in the latest tracking that it is going due north rather than northwest. I don't know if this is a trend or a little wobble.

Update (8:45am): My cable Internet connection is acting up, so if the updates stop, that means I lost Internet access.

Update (9:45am): The wind is picking up some, but it's still not too bad yet. The power flashed a couple of times earlier and I heard a transformer somewhere blow. It seems to be moving more northward -- it may make landfall at someplace like Destin or Fort Walton Beach. Or it could make landfall here. We'll see...

Update (10:30am): It's about the same as earlier except we got a few good gusts of wind a few minutes ago.

Update (11:10am): The power just flashed off and on and the winds are getting worse now.

Update (11:30am): It's getting pretty bad here now. Once again, my house sounds (and looks, since it's daylight this time) like it's in a dishwasher.

Update (12:00pm): Things are still about the same and I still have power.

Update (12:15pm): Here's a radar shot of Dennis looming offshore:

(Click for larger view.)

Update (12:40pm): Really heavy rain, lots of strong wind. The power has flashed a couple of times, but we haven't lost it yet.

Update (1:30pm): The wind is starting to get kind of scary. It looks like the storm may make landfall a little to the east of us (the Navarre Beach area). This is good for us, because that means we will get the western side of the storm rather than the eastern side. The western side isn't as intense. Ivan went slightly to the west of us, which means we got the worst part of that storm. Also, Dennis is moving much faster than Ivan did. That means it will get out of here faster rather than sitting on top of us and pounding us for hours like Ivan did.

Update (2:20pm): Dennis has weakened to a category 3 and is making landfall now around Navarre. Navarre is about 45 minutes away from here. It's still raining with lots of wind. Sometimes we get some scary gusts. But I have to say, so far, this isn't nearly as bad as Ivan was. Not even close.

Update (2:50pm): Right now, we are getting the heaviest rains and highest winds yet. This is because the eye is passing just east of us in the Gulf Breeze/Navarre area. We still have power so far, although it has flashed a few times.

Update (3:10pm): Power is out. I'll try to check in when I can.

Update (5:05pm): My power is out and my cable modem is running on an UPS. We are okay and my home was not damaged. The water and telephone are still working. We lost power when the storm was at its very worst. However, the storm moved out very quickly. According to the radio, Pensacola came through this pretty well.

Pre-Hurricane Craziness

Still traumatized by Ivan, everyone is taking Hurricane Dennis very seriously. I went to the grocery store yesterday to stock up on a few things and it was a madhouse. I had a bunch of bottled water already, but I thought I would buy some more. The shelves were almost wiped clean, but I managed to get a few bottles. I also bought lots of soda and juice. I didn't need lamp oil or candles because I still had plenty from last year. (I had bought a whole bunch the very day our power finally came back on.) I bought a whole bunch of non-perishable food. And I got some more batteries as well. And ice, of course.

Both my car and the jeep are mostly full (both have 3/4 of a tank). I thought I might top off the jeep while I was out but I quickly nixed that idea. The gas stations were either out of gas or had huge, long lines. I may try again this afternoon (they are closing the base early), because I've heard they are bringing more gas in.

This town is still trying to recover from Ivan, and it just doesn't seem fair for this to be happening again 10 months later. But life isn't fair, is it?

A message for Cindy and Dennis...

Go away!

Git! Stay away!

Update (7/6/05): Cindy's gone and didn't affect us that much -- just some wind and rain early this morning. Hurricane Dennis is another matter. It's definitely going to head into the Gulf in a couple of days.

T.S. Arlene Coming Ashore

What can I say...it's rainy and a little windy so far. The wind will pick up a little, but don't think it will be that bad. The NOAA was predicting that it may strengthen into a minimal hurricane before making landfall, but they seem a little more skeptical of that now. It looks like it's going to make landfall about the same area where Hurricane Ivan did.

The power just flashed off and on as I wrote this.

This is nothing like Ivan. Ivan was very, very frightening. Here is my Hurricane Ivan post and here is the first post after Ivan -- a week later.

Update (2:15pm): Unlike Ivan, T.S. Arlene's eye is going right over us, instead of to the west of us. Right now, there is no wind, just a misting of rain, and I thought I could see sunlight trying to peek through!

Update (2:30pm): Here's a radar shot of the eye going over Pensacola. Click for a larger view:

Update (8:50pm): The NOAA has dropped all warnings for the area. Arlene is now a depression and has moved out of the area. We haven't had much wind or rain since before the eye went over.

Tropical Storm Arlene

You know, if this storm is the only storm we get this year, I'll be happy. I mean, even though it will be windy and rainy, I'll take it over an Ivan -- or worse -- any day.

However, the fact that we are already getting a storm this early in the season makes me very ill at ease...

And we're off...

Wow, the hurricane season just started on June 1 and we are already have a tropical depression out there. It looks like it will become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico and will make landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast this weekend. It's doubtful that it'll strengthen into anything more than a tropical storm -- the water in the Gulf just isn't warm enough yet.

They are predicting that this year will be an "above-average" year for hurricanes.

The idea of investing in some hurricane shutters is sounding better and better...

Oh, great...

Just great...

Closer to Normal

Well, I'll be going back to work tomorrow, which is good. The Pensacola area is still recovering, but things are improving. Check out the Pensacola News Journal site if you want to read about the progress made. Another blogger who rode out Ivan in Mobile, AL is Megan at Under the Juniper. She has a whole series of posts on the hurricane. Also, Steve H. at Hog on Ice posts an email and some pictures from one of his readers in Milton, FL. This reader's house was severely damaged by flooding.

Meanwhile, my thoughts and prayers go out to those affected by Hurricane Jeanne.

Just clearing something up...

Dean's World and Connexions both linked to what I guess is supposed to be some sort of joke -- that God is trying to wipe out Republicans or something. Well, let me just attest to the fact that the Ivan path is not accurate at all. In fact, if it would have taken that path, Pensacola would have been spared a lot of the destruction we suffered. The eye made landfall in Baldwin County, Alabama. This means that Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties in Florida (along with Baldwin County) got the very worst of the storm. (The strongest part is the eastern eyewall.)

Here is a map of the path Ivan actually took, and here are regional and local radar loops of the storm making landfall.

Post-Ivan Update

I got my landline phone back yesterday evening, and I someone from my neighborhood who has a roofing business was able to put a tarp on my roof today, so now I don't have to worry about further water damage when it rains again. Hopefully, they will be lifting the boil order from the water tomorrow. Then it will be safe to drink and wash dishes in without boiling or adding bleach first.

A few days ago, some wonderful neighbors helped me and my mother with the large tree branches that had fallen in my back yard. One of my neighbors was going around with others from his church and chainsawing branches for people all over the neighborhood. I offered to pay them, but they would not take any money. Another neighbor helped my mother and I move the debris out to the side of the road. I appreciate all this wonderful help more than I can express. I don't know how to adequately repay such kindness.

The National Guard is here and they have been just great with helping people and bringing order to a chaotic situation. There are electric crews from all over the U.S. and as far away as Canada helping to get the power back on. The Red Cross is here helping so many people. The first few days after the storm were so awful and seemed so hopeless. But things are getting better and are very slowly returning to some sense of normalcy. The National Guard, the power crews, the Red Cross and many others -- I thank them from the bottom of my heart.

You have got to be kidding me...

Ivan -- the storm that wouldn't die!

I'm Okay

I just got my power and cable back this evening. The only thing still not working is my phone (I have to use my cell phone to make calls). My house has some damage -- the roof has missing shingles (causing some leaks) and my gate and part of my fence blew down -- but it came through very well. We are all fine -- just really stressed out. We are very fortunate, because a lot of people lost their homes and even their lives.

About riding the storm out...let me just say that while I've been through hurricanes before, this one was by far the most frightening. At the height of the storm, I stayed in the hallway behind a mattress. I did a lot of praying. I had to keep finding radio stations that were still on the air, because one after the other would lose their transmitters. The walls vibrated and you could hear a constant roar outside, with gusts that would whistle and howl.

After the storm, the power, water, phone and cable were out. In previous storms, we never lost water and phone service. I hoped that the cable would stay up so I could check in here, but it didn't. We got the water back after a couple of days. We got the power back a couple of hours ago and the cable came back about a half hour ago.

My town was hit very hard by this storm. I can't go back to work until some repairs are done at my workplace. While I'm doing okay, a lot of people are truly hurting right now. It's really sad.

I'm kind of overwhelmed right now after being offline for a week. Thank you for your comments and emails -- I may be a bit slow in responding but I appreciate them.

Ivan to Arrive Soon Is Here

Sorry for the lack of blogging. Obviously, I'm very preoccupied right now. The current projection shows Ivan's eye going just west of Mobile Bay in Mobile, AL. Mobile is about an hour away. The hurricane force winds extend well out from the eye, and we are on the eastern side, so I expect things will get really bad here. It looks like it's going to come in as a category 4 storm.

Oddly enough, we got more wind on Monday than we did Tuesday. The wind will start picking up soon.

Here's a satellite image of Ivan. (Courtesy of this site recommended by to me by Dave.) The blue dot is where I'm at:

Click for larger size.

I'll update this post throughout the day to let you know what's going on.

Update (11:25am): The rain and gusts have started the last few hours. I've heard the worst part will be between 9:00 tonight and 9:00 tomorrow morning. I didn't sleep well last night, so I'm going to try and get some rest this afternoon, since I won't be sleeping tonight.

Update (3:25pm): It's getting very windy here. We also had some heavy rain a little while ago. The power flashed off for a second and came back on. I'm trying to get some rest, but without any success so far. I'll keep checking in as long as my cable holds out. My iBook is charged up, so I can use that when the power goes out.

Update (6:20pm): The power went off briefly a few minutes ago and I heard a transformer make that noise. But it's back on for now. Robin Jones at Beyond Salvage is in Mobile and is also blogging about Ivan.

Update (7:15pm): Very heavy rain and winds. It's dark outside now, but in the last light I could see the trees waving, bending and twisting. On TV, they are showing the hurricane from space (the pictures are from the space station). I can't believe the eye on this thing.

Update (7:35pm): It sounds like my house is inside of a dishwasher. They just reported that power just went out at the Pensacola Civic Center, which is one of the major shelters in town. I think they said two thousand people are staying there.

Update (9:10pm): Still more of the same -- heavy rain and lots of strong wind. Still have power, though.

Update (9:50pm): Power is out. Will shut down to conserve UPS for cable modem. I'll try to check in later.

Watching Hurricane Ivan

A few days ago, I just had a feeling Hurricane Ivan would be coming to my area. Now, it's looking far more likely that he is. I'm glad that it looks like central and south Florida will be spared, because those folks have had enough trouble. However, I'm not happy with the idea of Ivan coming here. I just hope that the predictions of it weakening some before making landfall in the U.S. are correct.

I gather from reading the discussions on Ivan that hurricanes usually can't maintain category 5 strength for very long because they have to regenerate the eyewall -- or something like that. Right now, it's a category 4. I'm just glad I live in a sturdy house, should it come here.

Yesterday at the grocery store, people were already buying supplies. Yes, I bought supplies, too.

So, basically I'm just watching this site and this site and preparing.

Ivan Update

You can follow the ever-changing computer models here and here.

Most of the models now have Ivan hitting south and central Florida yet again. I feel terrible for the folks down there. This is a category 5 storm, so it's a bad one. I'm praying a front will push it away from Florida and the Gulf of Mexico and out into the ocean.

Now, Here Comes Ivan

Computer models of Hurricane Ivan's possible course:

No matter what course he takes, it looks like he's coming into the Gulf of Mexico. Get ready, Gulf Coast.

Frances Coming to the Panhandle

After tearing through central Florida as a hurricane, T.S. Frances is heading into the Gulf of Mexico and will be hitting the Florida Panhandle sometime tomorrow. It may strengthen back into a hurricane by then. Here's the current projected path. The green dot is where I live. As you can see, we are just outside the projected path:

The western side of these storms is the weaker side. We may get some rain and a little wind, but unless it changes course, I don't think the Pensacola area will be affected that much.

Hurricane Lili

One week ago, I wondered if what was then Tropical Storm Lili would become a problem for the Gulf Coast. Now Lili is a full-scale, category 4 hurricane -- a Big One. It will hit the Louisiana coast in about ten hours. This is a very dangerous storm and it appears to be very tightly compacted. For this reason, if it follows its predicted course, it probably won't affect the Florida Panhandle that much. However, I'm afraid it will be devastating for Louisiana, which is still trying to recover from T.S. Isidore. Please keep the people of Louisiana in your prayers.

Post-Storm Update

I didn't lose power this time, probably because T.S. Hanna had already blown down all the weak tree limbs around the power lines. However, it looks like the roof may be leaking in my dining room. *sigh*

It Is Time for Stormy Weather

Well, it wouldn't be fall on the Gulf Coast without a hurricane/tropical storm or two. A couple of weeks ago, Tropical Storm Hanna blew through, knocking out my power for six and a half hours. That wasn't so bad, though, considering I've been without power as long as six days before.

Now, it's Tropical Storm Isidore. The center will come ashore in Louisiana. But since the Florida Panhandle is on the eastern side of the storm, we've been getting a lot of bad weather. It's been raining nearly constantly all day -- about six inches so far. The rain is accompanied by lots of wind, making umbrellas nearly useless. I'm sure we'll continue to get heavy rain and wind for another day or so.

At least Isidore didn't regain its strength enough to become a hurricane (or at least not yet). Even less powerful hurricanes can cause quite a bit of damage. The thing we all dread here is The Big One -- a category 4 or 5 hurricane. Mostly, I see these storms as an inconvenience -- they knock out the power and make a mess. However, I would be truly afraid of a category 4 or 5.

I wonder if we'll have to worry about Tropical Storm Lili a week or two from now...